I have been paying attention to Gold for a while and plan to have at least 10% of my portfolio in Gold, but probably not now, maybe 1st half next year. Reason as below:
Gold is the perfect tool to preserve purchasing value, especially so in an hype-inflation enviroment. Given the current situation when FED starts to cut the rates, RMB appreciation and rising commodity price (especially oil), the probability is certainly rising.
However, history told us, right after FED's rate cut, ecnonomy and stock market tend to perform well, for about 12 monthes. Besides, we have Olympic Game in China next year, 2 IRs locally and stable EU/Japan. All these still paint a bright picture for equity market, especially in Asia(HK,Singaore).
So the problem is to determine whether we will have a high inflation, high growth sceneriao or a stagflation (high inflation, low growth or even recession). The former will favor equity, the later will favor Gold, Silver and Commodity.
My guess is the former.
Technically, Gold just breaks 700, which is definitely a bullish sign. However, we can always wait until the break up is retested and confirmed. It will take time for sure.
