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读了之后想到以下
1. 直接估值
详细计算例子(http://lithiumamericas.com/companies/cauchari-olaroz/):
Stage 1 DFS
Lithium Carbonate Price
$12,000/t Li2 CO3
Average Annual Production
25,000 tpa Li2 CO3
Expected Project Life
40 years
Project capital costs
$425 million
Operating costs
$2,495/t Li2 CO3
Average annual EBITDA
$233 million
Pre-tax NPV 10% discount
$1,266 million
After-tax NPV 10% discount
$803 million
Pre-tax IRR
34.0%
After-tax IRR
28.4%
Payback period
3 years, 5 months
2. 间接估值
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4034589-top-12-lithium-miners-create-lithium-etf?page=2
Pilbara Minerals
AU$0.535
Near term producer (~late 2017)
507m
Nemaska Lithium
CA$1.28
Near term producer (~2018/2019)
315m
Lithium Americas
CA$0.79
Near term producer (~2019)
179m
Altura Mining
AU$0.135
Near term producer (~late 2017)
125m
Lithium X
CA$2.30
Near term producer (~2019)
116m
Critical Elements
CA$0.485
Near term producer (~2019)
53m
a. 每个公司的网页都有resource与/或reserve(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2f/McKelveyDiagram.jpg/1920px-McKelveyDiagram.jpg)的信息(有的公司不止一个矿):
http://lithiumamericas.com/companies/cauchari-olaroz/
Lithium Mineral Resource Summary (effective date July 11, 2012)
Cut-off 354 mg/l
Description
Brine (m3 )
Average Lithium Concentration (mgéL)
Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (tonnes)
Lithium
Measured Resources2,3,4,5,6
9.14 x 108
630
3,039,000
576,000
Indicated Resources2,3,4,5,6
2.89 x 109
570
8,713,000
1,650,000
b. 路透社有market cap:
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview/LAC.TO
c. 可以粗略计算market cap/resource, market cap/reserve ratio作为市场对同类公司估值参考,自己再加premium/discount。
PS. 未来是不确定的。以上纯粹理论讨论。实际上是翟大说买我就买翟大说卖我就卖,愿赌服输,很简单。
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