The reality is that buying an ETF on any exchange is essentially the same as buying the 3 to 5 largest weighted stocks within that ETF. If an investor isn't making money on those individual stocks, it's unlikely he'll make money on the ETF too.
Conversely, if someone can profit from buying an S&P 500 ETF, whether in the long or short term, he should also be able to profit from, e.g. THE "big-7" stocks too, given that these stocks are over 80% correlated (possibly even more than 90%) with the ETF. This principle applies to all index ETFs and their major component stocks.
I think the key to survive is to create a well-defined trading or investing plan, which should include the following elements:
1) Your Objectives: Are you aiming for short-term quick profits, or long-term steady growth, or something in between?
2) Your Buy-Sell Style: Your objectives will determine whether you engage in short-term speculation, mid-term trading, or long-term investing. (Speculation is a neutral word and not negative.)
3) Time Commitment: The amount of time you can dedicate to observing, studying, and buying/selling the market will significantly influence your trading (investment) style.
4) Product or Instrument Selection: points 1-3 list above will guide you in selecting the most suitable instruments. Consider factors like liquidity, volatility, trading zones, costs, bid-ask spreads, and more.
5) Detailed Buy-Sell Strategy: Define clear entry and exit criteria, lot sizes, holding periods, position sizing rules, and other relevant parameters. Whether your strategy is based on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, or a combination of both, it DOESN"T MATTER —as long as it's simple, consistent, and thoroughly tested. Not only trading needs a rule; Investing ALSO needs a very specific set of buy/sell RULEs.
6) Discipline: Without discipline, everything listed above is meaningless. Stick to your plan and execute it consistently. If one can't commit to this, one shouldn't even start.
