(引用 speculatist:在metal市场。镍从55000跌倒26000，如果long future德人，破产就在眼前。)nickel都跌了那么久了...[AXL (8-16 11:43, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]41楼
(引用 mfe:通货膨胀: cpi +0.1%, core +0.2%已经是近八个月来最好的了. 老BEN的政策已经开始奏效. 烫手山芋无人接手之忧是重点, 问题就在这里. 全�...)you are right. I was misled by the CPI. The key is the liquidity dry up andforce sell down of quality assets.[临江仙 (8-16 11:43, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]42楼
(引用 AXL:nickel都跌了那么久了...)几个月而已啊。[speculatist (8-16 11:44, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]43楼
(引用 我无语老:大资金为了安全出走了先大资金总是这样，那就是不大计较成本滴走了啊～ 还是担心市场恐慌啊。
希望AXL老弟继续跟进最新动向！关注了)investors withdrawing funds from emerging mktit is something even big funds cannot control.
mutual fund has been flowing out emerging mkt big in past two month.[AXL (8-16 11:45, Long long ago)]
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(引用 speculatist:几个月而已啊。)哈哈 几个月够长了吧anyway, recent drop more abt speculators squaring positions rather than stainless destocking.
endless madness..shit[AXL (8-16 11:46, Long long ago)]
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(引用 speculatist:subprime是underlying，真正杀手是derivatives whose underlying isbased on those subprime.
由于derivatives有高的leverage效果，所�...)yep. Those derivatives are normally CDOs and CLOs,according to one senior banker, these instruments can easily leverage the sub-prime underlying 7-20 times!
I would be more interested to find out how the mechanism works! If any of you have the details, kindly share :)[临江仙 (8-16 11:47, Long long ago)]
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(引用 AXL:哈哈 几个月够长了吧anyway, recent drop more abt speculators squaring positions rather than stainless destocking.
endless madnes)嗯。我不认为这个和stock market有什么关系。但是就是讨论一种可能性，嘿嘿。
另外，几个月真的不长。只算中期，speculatist的理想活动时间段。
你觉得nickle能跌到多少？[speculatist (8-16 11:50, Long long ago)]
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(引用 临江仙:yep. Those derivatives are normally CDOs and CLOs,according to one senior banker, these instruments can easily leverage the sub-...)er...kindly refer to details in CFA level 2 text books ...they are all there, isn't it ?：）[speculatist (8-16 11:52, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]48楼
欢迎空空大哥回来！[山水 (8-16 11:56, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]49楼
(引用 speculatist:er...kindly refer to details in CFA level 2 text books ...they are all there, isn't it ?：）)CDO & CLO itself doesnot give leverage, if I remember correctly?I remember CDO is about multiple tranches of the pool of debt obligations being rated differently from high to low and the re-payment of interests/principle use waterfall method.
How does the leverage step in?[临江仙 (8-16 11:59, Long long ago)]
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(引用 speculatist:嗯。我不认为这个和stock market有什么关系。但是就是讨论一种可能性，嘿嘿。
另外，几个月真的不长。只算中期，speculatist的理想活动...)如果没有最近这次meltdown我觉得nickel差不多已经见底了
de-stocking不可能持续那么就
product mix change没有那么快实现
最近的weakness其实归根到底还是因为担心global economy slowdown. in that case, base metal will be hit most. (stock market now is another manifestation of that fear)[AXL (8-16 11:59, Long long ago)]
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(引用 AXL:investors withdrawing funds from emerging mktit is something even big funds cannot control.
mutual fund has been flowing out em...)了解了解所以这就是兄弟对A股目前的担心哈？老弟有非常专业的市场数据，我等有福了，呵呵～
我感觉政府的相应对策在那时已经实施了。
看结果吧，5000为界。5000不但是关键的心理点位，主要是技术上的一条长期压力顶。所以说破5000是很吃力不讨好滴。所以一切看空也是要收到尊敬的。:)[我无语老 (8-16 12:04, Long long ago)]
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(引用 我无语老:了解了解所以这就是兄弟对A股目前的担心哈？老弟有非常专业的市场数据，我等有福了，呵呵～
我感觉政府的相应对策在那时已经实施了。
...)哦哦 不是啦 A股QFII是small playerA股的担心不是这个
A股纯粹是因为技术面的担心
[AXL (8-16 12:07, Long long ago)]
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(引用 临江仙:CDO & CLO itself doesnot give leverage, if I remember correctly?I remember CDO is about multiple tranches of the pool of debt ob...)maybe a large size fund concentrate their risks in one small size cdo?say, 100m fund, 99m was safe, all the risk was in the last 1m tranche.I am not sure[割吧，都焦了 (8-16 12:08, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]54楼
(引用 劳动人民子弟:80只分析报告?你是说哪家？ocbc/dbs这类一天都出个4,5篇，一年总的分析报告大概5000以上啊。)问得很好，顺便具体回答一下我是本着不相信分析师报告的情绪，作后向测试的。方法很简单，我把早报/我报介绍的那种很简单报告集中起来（不是发给用户的较详细报告），80多只吧，时间是测试日之前6-12月的。对每份报告我都调出K线图来看，主要看下面几点：
1〕报告出炉几天前股价的变动。因为肯定有人先知道报告内容，我要看看本地人的偷跑如何，有多少是好消息面一出就借机会溜走的。
2〕多少天后达到预测目标价位？
3）又超过目标价多少，由此我大概了解分析师为保护自己留了多少余两
4〕之间有没有什么突发事件，是如何影响走势的
5〕达不到目标价的百分比？离目标价差多少？这是为我自己今后如果看分析师报告是，知道应留多少空间。
6〕哪间分析行的报告最准确。
以上这些工作花了不少时间，只作了一次。心里大概有数了，结论是，至少在牛市中期，听分析师报告基本没错。[空空如也 (8-16 12:12, Long long ago)]
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(引用 AXL:哦哦 不是啦 A股QFII是small playerA股的担心不是这个
A股纯粹是因为技术面的担心
)哈哈哈，那就好，技术面上可有的聊啦！5000为界，你愿意不？5000有些近，算不算占你便宜呀～～
我的底线是5200，你若不愿意我可就算你赖皮了～ :P[我无语老 (8-16 12:13, Long long ago)]
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(引用 临江仙:CDO & CLO itself doesnot give leverage, if I remember correctly?I remember CDO is about multiple tranches of the pool of debt ob...)how leverage comes in? based on one pool of mortgagesassuming bank A, it give money to some poor credit people .
they use this mortgage to sell CDO, then they get money back in (proceeds of cdo sales)
they use the new proceeds to issue more mortgage, and use new mortage to issue cdo,
they have new proceeds,
so the whole process, you can see, nothing is really created , i.e. no real values there, but the money is more and more created, why?
root of all,
they securitized "CREDIT". credit , previously was some virtual invisible stuff, now become the real money, they are now same as the house, the factory, the gold, they can sell for money.
Use Credit to get money,
Leverage.
[speculatist (8-16 12:14, Long long ago)]
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(引用 我无语老:哈哈哈，那就好，技术面上可有的聊啦！5000为界，你愿意不？5000有些近，算不算占你便宜呀～～ 我的底线是5200，你若不愿意我可就算你�)呵呵 技术面我要让你失望了我只会看看MA, RSI, MACD和画画trendline...[AXL (8-16 12:21, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]58楼
(引用 空空如也:问得很好，顺便具体回答一下我是本着不相信分析师报告的情绪，作后向测试的。方法很简单，我把早报/我报介绍的那种很简单报告集中起来（�...)这些功夫是最大的财富。老兄这点着实令人佩服这个版老老实实做功课的可能真的不多。
其实有些事情，甚至是market view / market FEEL，如果功课做足，把自己沉浸在里面，也是很能感觉得到的。
支持认认真真做功课的高手。[speculatist (8-16 12:40, Long long ago)]
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太,太欢迎你回来了!![打天下 (8-16 12:40, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]60楼