请各位帮A某分析一下为神么经济复苏后，商品价格必将飞涨。[aspernet (12-12 11:45, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]1楼

商品和股票一样,有人买才能卖出价钱经济复苏,大家伙手头钱多了,买东西的人就多了,买的人多了,自然就涨价拉:)

说的不一定对:)

[枫叶雨叶 (12-12 13:27, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]2楼

(引用 枫叶雨叶:商品和股票一样,有人买才能卖出价钱经济复苏,大家伙手头钱多了,买东西的人就多了,买的人多了,自然就涨价拉:) 说的不一定对:) )不是，我的意思是说，当经济危机刚结束的时候，为什么会出现商品价格飞涨的情况？[aspernet (12-12 14:10, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]3楼

(引用 aspernet:不是，我的意思是说，当经济危机刚结束的时候，为什么会出现商品价格飞涨的情况？)危机时期，商品投资不足，产能不够
艰难时期大家勒紧腰带， 危机一结束大家不约而同都想犒劳一下，

不怕需求大就怕同时抢[Solstice (12-12 15:12, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]4楼

(引用 Solstice:危机时期，商品投资不足，产能不够 艰难时期大家勒紧腰带， 危机一结束大家不约而同都想犒劳一下， 不怕需求大就怕同时抢)是不是需求开始增长，但是供应还没有跟上的转弯期？产能受需求的影响但是慢一拍 :O[aspernet (12-12 16:08, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]5楼

A xiong should ask Rogers .....[虹 (12-12 17:30, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]6楼

(引用 aspernet:是不是需求开始增长，但是供应还没有跟上的转弯期？产能受需求的影响但是慢一拍 :O)不景气期间，许多产能闲置，关闭，导致供应量锐减；甚至大量的供应来自于仓库；当经济开始走稳，回升，正好是仓库储量接近于用完的时候，
而废弃的矿井等设备和人员，并非一夜之间可以复工，
等到这些公司慢慢积累资金，慢慢滚动增加产能的时候，
下一波熊市又该来了。[halley (12-13 9:42, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]7楼

FED拯救经济就是印钞票。危机过程中，大家捂着，现金为王，钱少东西多。
等到心理状况适应过来了，钱也慢慢花出去了，发现没事，那就一窝蜂放贷，钱多东西少。

危机恢复初期commmodity价格涨，不如说是美元价值跌。
可以视为FED拯救危机的副作用。

除非摆脱美圆结算，否则没有办法。
[树冷 (12-13 16:19, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]8楼

just add-on to SHU LENG's postbasically SHU LENG is right.

somemore, in the current crisis, FED has widen its balance sheet by absorbing and exchanging a lot of "bad asset" by the original "good asset", so it has potential downsides to writedown, hence need more money. on the other hands, FED also guarantee many banking transactions, which also impose the potential issues...however, all the downsides above will impact FED materially only if the markets deteriorate much further, like say more bankcrupcies, more frault fallout and failures...in that case, FED will print money, which will essentially inflate the market, which will depreciate USD in long term, probably years later.

even worse, which never happend before i guess, is that Bernake ever had theory solving deflation problem, which the world is terribly worried about. the answer from Ben is that "print money, and get on to helicopter, and throw out the money". in this way, the purpose is to create inflation, which will likely to drive consumption. this will potentially work out in short term, and if still not, then NO ONE HAS ANSWER SO FAR, as i know.

but u know what, things are not all in FED control or their responsibility. US Treasury in fact is to do more things: at least bailing out corperates, boost fiscal spending.....which in fact has more powerful impact to economy. thus FED has to work closely with Treasury to get the way out.


so has this anything to do with inflation? tentatively not so, as Treasury is able to raise money, as u see, how crazily ppl in the world has flying into treasury....also this is witnessed by increditable strong USD this half year!

looking forward, we could not rule out the possibility of printing money if things get worse and worse, like great depression. however, u know what, world still has money, alot! but no one wanna step into capital markets. and if US print money, ppl in the world get threaten, as ON ONE wanna see a week US consumptions, which means all the exporters will be dooms...


the world are tied together! if US plan to print money to save themselves, they would inform the world first. and then the world will fear, then they agree to buy Treasury...u see how effective of Paulson's visit to various countries last few months...

lastly, US down => raise more debt to start again => if fail, then print money => USD devalue => world consumption down to ground => exporters cut throats, USD in hand worth less, Oil get back to $10, which essentially make oil drillers run huge loss....=> world go to depression => more roits, strikes, political fightouts.....ok, u number them![banban (12-16 0:30, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]9楼