the higher the winning probability for a particular type of trade, the lower the potential return it can generate.
Conversely, the lower the winning probability, the higher the potential return — but with greater risk.
Traders don't focus on just one trade. It's the repetitive nature of trades — the consistency of winning probabilities combined with the profit/loss ratio — that determines long-term success.
If someone believes they've found a trade with a 90% win rate and 500% potential return, that's likely just a wish. If it's a one-off lucky trade, fine. But if they think it can work on a consistent basis, it's nothing more than a castle in the air.
