1996. The Economist: China's economy will face a hard landing
1998.　The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?　
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China
2015. Forbes: Congratulations You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?

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该帖荣获当日十大第4，奖励楼主12分以及18华新币，时间：2018-03-09 22:00:04。

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该帖荣获当日十大第1，奖励楼主25分以及37华新币，时间：2018-03-10 22:00:01。

China may be about to catch the Japanese disease. The consequences would be bad not only for China but for all of Asia; and also explosive politically.

As with Japan, China's leaders recognised the deflationary threat too late. They have failed to cut interest rates fast enough (real rates are about 10%) to boost domestic demand, perhaps because they fear that domestic savers will panic and seek hard-currency havens, despite an officially closed capital account. Instead, the government is relying upon additional infrastructure spending, equivalent to a combined 3.5% of GDP for this year and next, to pull the economy up. Yet there is little to suggest that a centrally mandated infrastructure splurge in China will provide much more than a short-term benefit. It will lean against the wind, but that wind, pushing back domestic demand, is a strong one.

Plenty of mainland and foreign economists are cheerier than this; they have an enduring faith in the government's ability to keep the economy growing. But China's structural problems may now be too deep-seated for the government to be able to deliver. Worried about the consequences of unemployment, or about the rising social costs (pensions, schooling, health care) that state companies used to bear, people are becoming afraid to spend—just as they have in Japan.

Several years of Japan-like slow growth, not to mention recession, would be disastrous for the welfare of ordinary Chinese. It would put China's long-term growth assumptions in serious doubt. It would threaten the legitimacy of a leadership whose claim to power is its ability to deliver growth. And it could precipitate a banking crisis that would make Japan's look like a picnic.

——China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth, The Economist, Oct 22nd 1998.

中国的发展是国人的勤劳聪明，也是因为中国人超能忍，加上无孔不入的铁腕国安。

最近几年国内的用工荒已经比较明显，一二线城市3K、4K人民币已经不容易招到农民工，有点小技术或比较辛苦的劳动工作一线城市拿5K问题不大，这也是为什么新加坡的低端外劳已经越来越少中国工人的原因（如果一个民工在国内城市打工拿5K已经不太难，又何必到新加坡拿1K多新元的工资，还得中介费），目前小坡的低层外劳市场主要对东南亚及印度等国还有比较大吸引力。

人口红利慢慢降低也有好处，一方面推高基层工人待遇（供求关系），另一方面某种程度上倒逼产业升级，从劳动力密集型向技术密集型产业转变的趋势比较明显。最近几年的国内明星企业已经大都不是靠密集劳动力来走四方的。

但从标题的趣味性来说，个人最喜欢福布斯的标题，Forbes: Congratulations！ You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. 严肃中带点调皮，趣味中带点忧桑

根据翟东生教授的观点，全球范围内，在二战以后能够从第三世界跃居第一世界的国家和地区基本只有亚洲四小龙。
其共同特点是躲避过了：人口陷阱，资源陷阱，民主陷阱等。
中国改革开放40年来也基本具备了这些特点。

当然，中国的发展要靠人民的聪明勤劳，但是正确的政府领导与政策是不可或缺的。
毕竟就在100年前，同样拥有聪明勤劳人民的中国却民生凋敝，几十年内三度被外敌攻破首都，导致山河破碎。

层主也是好有毅力啊
你知道有一个中文词叫"白眼狼"吗？

天朝的发展是建立在国人的忍耐和努力。
别的国家人们都在享受 国人在做什么？
ZF先发展国家 再给人们把福利提上来 挺好的

孜孜不倦的黑。。。。

一只停了的钟也会有一天走准两次

一只停了的钟也会有一天走准两次

中国的发展就是牺牲农民的利益来补贴城市和工业的发展。为什么农民种田不赚钱？因为有粮食价格限制，压榨农民的利益，逼着农民去城市打工，然后等农民工老了，再把他们踢回农村去养老，每个月领着不到一百块的退休工资。整天吹牛经济怎样，农民的死活就没人管了。

你说的是2018年，不是一回事。

那个年代的工人阶级是被牺牲了，我身边有很多很多下岗的，2018年大家当然缓过来了，但是1998年呢，有没有想过他们是怎么度过那最惨的几年的。

我舅舅舅妈工作的国营厂子就差不多那个时候破产被收购的，舅妈没办法去给别人打零工，很辛苦。
我表弟就是在那个环境中长大的，磨砺的很坚韧，然后考上清华，硕士毕业，又读了北大MBA，现在妥妥的年收入七位数……

其实所谓前人栽树后人乘凉，每一代人都有各自的机遇，也都有各自的付出与牺牲

我是来自农村地方，现在农村的生活可舒服得很。农业税早已经全免，家里有一两个人在城市打个工可以一家老小在农村相当潇洒，农村医保简直税城市居民医保几条街，每年交100多元，几乎保一切疾病。凡是生病住院，不管是去省城住院、还是去北上广住院，打印了清单及发票回去就基本可以报销一半费用，简直秒城市居民医保几条街，算是国家给农民的一个大号福利。去年有亲戚去一线城市做了肿瘤切除手术，费用约20万，农村医保报销掉约10万，另外还在镇上申请了一个什么老年人补贴拿了差不多1万。