three reasons
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作者:box (等级:8 - 融会贯通,发帖:1469) 发表:2006-06-22 21:33:32  楼主  关注此帖评分:
谢谢你提供的价位,我会留心这些股票的。。。 但为什么说中国股的风险大呢?是由于中航油搞坏了名声吗?
three reasons
they are high growth company, much more sensitive to financial events.

2, weaker corporate governmence compared to local peers. CAO is one typical example, ironically, CAO was awarded the "most transparent listed company" in 03 or 04.

3. short track record and weaker financial balances.
one example is People food. when the founder was reported to have financial problems in 2005, the stock price plunged...

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作者:box (等级:8 - 融会贯通,发帖:1469) 发表:2006-06-23 21:29:41  2楼
谢谢box的解答,探讨一下对你的第一个解释,股价能上升的股票,大部分应该都是公司业绩有很大的发展,那是不是这些high growth company都应该对financial events比较敏感呢?而不仅仅是中国股? 谢谢.
er, generally yes
personally i feel there are two kind of high growth companies and the reaction to macro events are somehow different.

one is in emerging market, such as china, india. the economic and sectors are growing faster and the companies have large potentials.. u can imagine how sensitive these companies will react to overall macro events. i recalled, early this year, SGX-listed china stocks surged (quite a few up >10% on that day) on news that President Hu said China 1Q growth 10+% which was higher than expected..

2nd kind is companies with innovation technologies, like Solar battery companies, Google. They are really growing companies. As their sector/technogy is consider as future sector/tech. you need to take a very long term view on the companies and ignore tempemary macro events. as such, they reacts to macro events to a less degree.



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作者:box (等级:8 - 融会贯通,发帖:1469) 发表:2006-07-05 19:28:47  3楼
"价格反映一切",价值决定一切!价格反映一切,基本上是毫无疑问的。。。但是决定未来走势的还是要看公司的盈利,即基本面。说到 Fu Yu,其价格的大幅下跌,就是因为盈利大幅度下滑。。讲道基本面, 可不单单是PE, NAV这些数据了。。同一个公司,PE在40时候,大家不觉得高,PE都到10以内了,却还无人问津。。可见,关键还是人们对未来的期望决定了人们的选择。。 过去的 FuYu 很牛,技术分析是不会知道以后 FuYu 还牛不牛。只有基本面的变化,才决定了其以后一段时间的走势。。。。 当然,技术分析也有用,对于何时买,何时卖,有点用的。。不过,一旦基本面定下来,一时的价格波动有何关系?? Warrent Buffett 是基础投资者的代表,索罗斯是技术投资者的代表。。显然,Warrent Buffett 更胜一筹。 总的来说,对一个公司了解得越多,越容易把握其未来发展。投资一个公司,就要了解这个公司,否则光看曲线,我看很悬。。
I feel buffet better also. solos's quant fund performed badly in tech bubble

My impression is solos is macro player for his famous pound hedging with 1B profit in 1 day.

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