Fed本月是不会加息的，次级贷款这个借口空方用了两年了。次级贷款问题只是局限在少部分地区，其实和大多数美国人没有关系！另外，美国的就业不错，只要有工作，还自住房屋银行贷款我觉得不会太大问题。有次级贷款问题的多数是那些投机炒房的（所以就局限在美国“北京上海”地区了）。
美国经济不怎么好，但是那些公司赢利能力却是很强，所以，老美铁了心推动全球化是有原因的。美军一日不衰败，老美的公司在全世界就能继续赚钱！
大盘一到某个部位，多空就会达成一致，就和朝鲜战争的38线一个道理！
Thank you all for the discussion, but I am not saying FED rate will hike
I'm referring to the sub prime mortgage rate itself, pls correct me if my understanding is wrong.
I think most sub prime mortage borrowers take a floating package, which probably charge a lower interest rate initially (ard 4%) with annual adjustment upward to 10%+ eventually because of his bad credit history.
If the US housing market is booming, he might be able to restructure his mortage and take advantage of the appreciating asset price. But now, he could not do that; and the floating rate is keep hiking, with every hike the borrower needs to pay more interest. He may not be able to afford it and cannot sell the property and cannot refinance, that's why the default rate will go up.
Now, I think the fixed income market was hit badly, ... lower tranche of CDOs backed by sub prime mortgage become worthless, and two hedge funds have collapsed already, more are in trouble. Sub prime mortgage problem will definitely become bigger, but don't know how bad the problem will become.
Like speculatist and other people have mentioned, one problem is with the tightening of credit terms, companies are more and more difficult to raise funds. But still, I personally don't think it will shake the foundatoin of economy...
please correct me if my understanding is wrong.
I think most sub prime mortage borrowers take a floating package, which probably charge a lower interest rate initially (ard 4%) with annual adjustment upward to 10%+ eventually because of his bad credit history.
If the US housing market is booming, he might be able to restructure his mortage and take advantage of the appreciating asset price. But now, he could not do that; and the floating rate is keep hiking, with every hike the borrower needs to pay more interest. He may not be able to afford it and cannot sell the property and cannot refinance, that's why the default rate will go up.
Now, I think the fixed income market was hit badly, ... lower tranche of CDOs backed by sub prime mortgage become worthless, and two hedge funds have collapsed already, more are in trouble. Sub prime mortgage problem will definitely become bigger, but don't know how bad the problem will become.
Like speculatist and other people have mentioned, one problem is with the tightening of credit terms, companies are more and more difficult to raise funds. But still, I personally don't think it will shake the foundatoin of economy...
please correct me if my understanding is wrong.
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