各位前辈对现在投资黄金有啥意见？最近黄金越来越值钱了。。不知道short term/long term 收益会如何。。 谢谢指教。。

My thoughts.I have been paying attention to Gold for a while and plan to have at least 10% of my portfolio in Gold, but probably not now, maybe 1st half next year. Reason as below: Gold is the perfect tool to preserve purchasing value, especially so in an hype-inflation enviroment. Given the current situation when FED starts to cut the rates, RMB appreciation and rising commodity price (especially oil), the probability is certainly rising. However, history told us, right after FED's rate cut, ecnonomy and stock market tend to perform well, for about 12 monthes. Besides, we have Olympic Game in China next year, 2 IRs locally and stable EU/Japan. All these still paint a bright picture for equity market, especially in Asia(HK,Singaore). So the problem is to determine whether we will have a high inflation, high growth sceneriao or a stagflation (high inflation, low growth or even recession). The former will favor equity, the later will favor Gold, Silver and Commodity. My guess is the former. Technically, Go (more...)

sorry, maybe hyper-inflation is not very accurateI mean the overal scenerio of high inflation. Of course, it is not possible to see 30% inflation in any major ecnomics. but double digit inflation will certainly cause panick and gold price will fly then.