Starhub share price can only stabilize after TPG start operations.

S$1.9买入的,已经有4%的帐面损失.

最近新加坡股市全线下跌，只要在场内的一个也逃不掉。电信股跌的尤其惨重。我以前买过M1，StarHub和 Singtel, 所以比较关心。

对于星河， 大家最不看好它的电缆电视业务。最近他的 discovery 内容得不到续订。

新加坡最知名博客之一的 AK47 前几天讨论了 星河，他给的目标价位是1.40：
https://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2018-06-22T14:36:00%2B08:00&max-results=1

My investment in Starhub has turned out to be a bad one.However, I am not losing sleep over this.

Why? Is it because I am on anti-depressants?Hey, don't be so like that lah.

I stop taking those pills a long time ago.

I am quite ZEN about the paper loss really because my investment in Starhub is very small especially in comparison to my investment in SingTel which has been, of course, my preferred local Telco to invest in for quite a while now.

To give you a rough idea, the market value of my investment in Starhub is less than 2% the market value of my investment in SingTel.

Although I have been adding to my investment in SingTel as its share price declined in recent months, I have not added to my investment in Starhub even as its share price plunged.

Why is this so?

SingTel has a stronger balance sheet, stronger free cash flow and it pays out a fraction of its earnings as dividends to shareholders.

Starhub, on the other hand, has seen its free cash flow declining in recent years and it pays out much more than its free cash flow as dividends to shareholders.

Although Starhub has cut DPS from 20c to 16c, I think, if the management is financially prudent or unless business improves dramatically however unlikely, DPS should be cut again.

I did the numbers some time back and again more recently. I now feel that a more sustainable DPS could be 10c, assuming things do not get much worse.

So, if we choose to invest in Starhub today for income, we should ask ourselves if a DPS of 10c would make us happy?

I received quite a few messages from readers regarding Starhub recently. Examples:

Assuming that Starhub pays all of its cash flow to shareholders as dividends, I feel that it behaves very much like S-REITs.

Hanging on to that idea, if we can get a dividend yield of 7% or more from Starhub which is probably comparable to what we can get from industrial S-REITs, it is not too bad a deal.

Assuming a lower 10c DPS, even at $1.70 a share, we are looking at a dividend yield of 5.88% which doesn't quite cut it for me even with this new perspective.

Investing in Starhub for income?

Closer to $1.40 a share could be a more reasonable price to pay, I feel.

At $1.40 a share and assuming a more sustainable DPS of 10c, dividend yield would be 7.14%.

What if $1.40 does not happen?

No problem because I would rather invest in SingTel at the current price than to invest in Starhub at the current price, everything taken into consideration.

Looking at the chart, the RSI shows that Starhub is very oversold but like the MACD, the momentum oscillator does not show any sign of a trend reversal.

Although Starhub's share price plunged 5% (- 9c) today to $1.67, we could see it going lower if Mr. Market shares my sentiments.

Things could get worse before they get better.

So, why have I not been adding to my investment in Starhub?

Alamak. I anyhow talk to myself only lah.

You blur? I also blur.

1. 淡马锡理论上有无限的弹药，它背后是国库和印钞机。
散户的资金一旦套住，后续大部队就要考薪水了。

2. 淡马锡作为大股东可以对董事会做出影响，比如要求合并，出售等

3. 淡马锡可以从公开市场买入
对市场信心有很大提振作用

4.淡马锡可以注入资源
比如最近它把它持有的一些股票卖给新电信

相对4G主要优点有两个：
1. latency 从200毫秒减到2毫秒
2.带宽增加

业内人士讲对普通用户，这两个优点不那么明显或突出。 5G最大应用是 IoT (物联网).

10年前就有定论，新加坡市场太小，只能容纳三家电信业者。最近新电信总裁重申了这个观点。

但政府还是出人意料的发了第四张电信牌照，引进了第四家电信业者澳洲的TPG。而且频道拍卖时候给了优惠。

我想这些都是得到淡马锡默许的。

政府既然知道新电信和星河大股东是政府自己，还这样做，说明它认为引进竞争的重要性超过利润。