小心为妙：新加坡住宅供应过剩严重！About 49,700 new homes expected to enter the market by FY2015, following FY2014’s 50,000 new completions, said OCBC and reported in the media. The figure is expected to increase to 73,600 by FY2016, with the estimates including DBSS, HDB and Executive Condominium (EC) completions. “Assuming a six million population target by 2020 from the latest population white paper, we forecast average population growth at approximately 86,000 individuals per annum from 2014 to 2020,” said OCBC. “Assuming a conservative three persons per household, this translates to an incremental demand of approximately 29,000 physical homes per year, which points to a fairly clear physical oversupply situation ahead.” But OCBC cautioned the level of unsold pipeline held by developers currently stands at 36,000 units. This is significantly lower compared to the historical 10-year average of 41,000 units. “While developers are likely to ease prices ahead to move inventory, we do not foresee a f (more...)

报纸上的文章都是拼拼凑凑的前些天读了一篇文章，某个大中介公司头头写的，觉得还不错。中心思想就是明后两年有大量公寓TOP。不管政府会不会放宽降温措施，放宽也许会带来买家，但不会带来租客。所以预期租金会受压。租金受压会带来房价的压力。他的结论是房价不会大升，但也不会大跌。