(引用 xiaohu:Fed本月是不会加息的，次级贷款这个借口空方用了两年了。次级贷款问题只是局限在少部分地区，其实和大多数美国人没有关系！另外，美国的�...)抛开大盘到哪里止跌不说，关于次级房贷，却不只是次级房贷的问题最近开始浮出水面，也就是最令投资者恐慌的，不是那些人房子还不起钱而放弃房子，而是，
很多并购因此达不到成功的进行。
克拉斯勒的并购拖延就是这个原因。原来的并购把DOW一步步推高，每次不管好坏数据，有个指数股有并购传言或者被人买就让老道狂冲，并购潮到今年5月已经创10年历史记录了，大家并购的不亦乐乎，最后发现，银行找不到投资者买这些placement，或者bonds，于是融资困难了，
这其实是由次级房贷崩溃使得corporate bonds market bear的一个表现。
我觉得，这个杀伤力最大。投资者觉得这个公司并购消息无法实现，结果就是take profit and watch!
[speculatist (7-30 14:14, Long long ago)]
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(引用 speculatist:抛开大盘到哪里止跌不说，关于次级房贷，却不只是次级房贷的问题最近开始浮出水面，也就是最令投资者恐慌的，不是那些人房子还不起钱而放...)记得刚看了美国一个公司的并购案(记不清名字,好像是20B),最后十家银行自己买单.[forpc (7-30 14:18, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]42楼
(引用 banban:哇。我买电话卡那遥远的历史你都知道？。。。)在PGP的时候去你房间买过一次电话卡发现你在打CS
我说我CS比你厉害，你不要不服气，炒股你就比我高多了，我好菜[我也想炒股 (7-30 14:19, Long long ago)]
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(引用 forpc:记得刚看了美国一个公司的并购案(记不清名字,好像是20B),最后十家银行自己买单.)就是克莱斯勒[speculatist (7-30 14:22, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]44楼
(引用 banban:哇。我买电话卡那遥远的历史你都知道？。。。)我也知道，哈哈，我也买过你的，好人[飞儿 (7-30 14:38, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]45楼
(引用 我也想炒股:在PGP的时候去你房间买过一次电话卡发现你在打CS 我说我CS比你厉害，你不要不服气，炒股你就比我高多了，我好菜)现在CS已是我尘封的记忆了。所以无所谓了：其实，我的CS这得很滥。不信问过儿。[banban (7-30 14:45, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]46楼
(引用 xiaohu:Fed本月是不会加息的，次级贷款这个借口空方用了两年了。次级贷款问题只是局限在少部分地区，其实和大多数美国人没有关系！另外，美国的�...)Thank you all for the discussion, but I am not saying FED rate will hikeI'm referring to the sub prime mortgage rate itself, pls correct me if my understanding is wrong.
I think most sub prime mortage borrowers take a floating package, which probably charge a lower interest rate initially (ard 4%) with annual adjustment upward to 10%+ eventually because of his bad credit history.
If the US housing market is booming, he might be able to restructure his mortage and take advantage of the appreciating asset price. But now, he could not do that; and the floating rate is keep hiking, with every hike the borrower needs to pay more interest. He may not be able to afford it and cannot sell the property and cannot refinance, that's why the default rate will go up.
Now, I think the fixed income market was hit badly, ... lower tranche of CDOs backed by sub prime mortgage become worthless, and two hedge funds have collapsed already, more are in trouble. Sub prime mortgage problem will definitely become bigger, but don't know how bad the problem will become.
Like speculatist and other people have mentioned, one problem is with the tightening of credit terms, companies are more and more difficult to raise funds. But still, I personally don't think it will shake the foundatoin of economy...
please correct me if my understanding is wrong.[大象 (7-30 14:45, Long long ago)]
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(引用 speculatist:就是克莱斯勒)是[forpc (7-30 15:20, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]48楼