很就没法主帖了，来个震撼一点的。Singapore: population fall

Some simple arithmetic on Singapore's population Two hundred thousand foreigners and permanent residents (PRs) might leave Singapore during 2009-10, reducing its population by around 160K to 4.68mn. The potential drop in employment and population would have far-reaching implications for the economy. Private consumption could contract in both 2009 and 2010, the unemployment rate could reach 5.6% in 2010, and residential property prices could drop by over 40% from their peak in 2008. ? The size and speed of Singapore's recent population increase, including foreigners and PRs, has been unprecedented according to census data going back 1982. From mid-2003 to mid-2008, Singapore's population surged 725K (18%) to 4.84mn. Over 75% of that population increase was attributable to a 547K (48%) jump in foreigners and PRs. ? Foreigners and PRs came to Singapore to fill new jobs. We estimate that they filled 485K or 61% of the 796K new jobs created during 2004 to Q3 2008. ? We think the economic recession will lead to sizable job losses and potentially drive as many as 200K foreigners and PRs out of Singapore. That in turn could reduce the country's population by up to 160K during 2009-10. ? Government actions, including the supplementary budget to be revealed on 22 January, are unlikely to materially change our conclusions on job and population losses. The government so far has announced measures that provide less than 1% of GDP of fiscal stimulus and has ruled out measures to support the property sector and cuts in the Government Sales Tax and in CPF contribution rates. ? This analysis suggests that Singapore is highly exposed to second-round effects that could deepen the recession in 2009 and mute the recovery in 2010. There are sizable downside risks ? around 1-2pp ? to our real GDP growth forecasts of -2.8% for 2009 and 3% for 2010.[炎鑫 (1-20 11:03, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]1楼

应该不止16万人。建筑业一完，至少30万就没工作了。

还有服务行业，电子业，造船业，这都是危险行业。

从公寓租金下滑就知道不少白领外国人也在慢慢撤退。


[你好吗 (1-20 11:50, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]2楼

震撼! 不过早就知道老乡里几个人要离开了EP/Work Permit到期或即将到期，但是公司不给renew的。
还有前同事有几个才了，因为是PR/Citizen才没有离开。[小小宝宝 (1-20 12:48, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]3楼

那里转载的文章啊？[laoda (1-20 12:59, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]4楼

(引用 laoda:那里转载的文章啊？)IR和移民政策，呵呵. 老李的目标是650万人口[laoda (1-20 13:04, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]5楼

只减少这么少？我还以为会跌回400万以下……[blank (1-20 13:05, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]6楼

哈哈。小道消息还是很多的。这是2009到2010两年的预计。主要还是那些红毛人，美国公司或者北欧的一些公司中层。
建筑业方面，小李不是刚说过么，所有的在建项目一般都要在2012年左右才能完工，所有你的担心是多余的。他们都算到了。
至于发展中国家pr这类的包括中国，进进出出很正常。你只看到你的朋友走了，我却看到我的朋友来了。还有那么多留学生在这里，我相信如果能留的话，他们中的大部分还是愿意在这里做几年再走的。关键的问题还是有没有工作给他们。
你的朋友因该是自愿离开的，相信接下去还有很多被逼离开的。政府还是希望增加人口的，大环境的影响是他们也没考虑到，有可能的话，早晚人还是会回来的。人生都会有的低潮期。
国大南大这几年扩招也是有他的目的的。前几天报纸上还说，政府要组织代表团去非洲考察做生意？因为这次危机只有非洲大陆没受到影响。

新加坡虽然在很多人眼里不算什么，（这是事实）。但是本人还是对他很乐观。[炎鑫 (1-20 14:15, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]7楼

(引用 你好吗:应该不止16万人。建筑业一完，至少30万就没工作了。 还有服务行业，电子业，造船业，这都是危险行业。 从公寓租金下滑就知道不少白领外)造船业有高有低，现在的contract 因该还可以撑一段时间。[henan (1-21 17:19, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]8楼

(引用 你好吗:应该不止16万人。建筑业一完，至少30万就没工作了。 还有服务行业，电子业，造船业，这都是危险行业。 从公寓租金下滑就知道不少白领外)也有说30万的。造船业还是稳定的。报纸上面的是个别现象。都是估计。一个月前和一个月后的估计就会差很多。

几间大船厂都有政府参股，好比国内国有企业。底子厚，实力强。今年keppel花红听说发了7.8个月。这种重工业一般受到打击是最后的，要轮到他们的话，估计新加坡真快完了。
新加坡海事业的春天也已经过去了，下一个周期不知道什么时候，不过瘦死的骆驼比马大，offshore这块还有很多油水政府不会这么轻易放手。不能造船还能修船。
如果兄弟你是做这行的，恭喜你了，咱们老家就需要这种人才。接下去20年不怕饿死。[炎鑫 (1-22 10:19, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]9楼

这是那个瑞士银行做的预测吧。昨天报纸上有。[liupeng (1-22 11:42, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]10楼

这个才叫震撼：16.9% annualized contraction in fourth quarterSingapore economy smacked with record decline
City state's economy suffers 16.9% annualized contraction in fourth quarter
By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:08 p.m. EST Jan. 20, 2009
Comments: 24
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Singapore's economy contracted by the most on record in the fourth quarter, prompting the government to revise down its growth expectation for this year amid what it said were conditions of "faster and deeper" slowing in global economic activity.
Gross domestic product contracted at an annualized 16.9% in the October-December period from the previous quarter, the biggest fall since comparable data was published in 1976, according to data released Wednesday by the Ministry of Trade and Industry.
The decline was bigger than a 13.1% contraction for the export-and-services-sector-dependant-economy that was forecast analysts. It was also much worse than the government's initial estimate of a 12.5% decline.
Singapore's economy shrank 5.1% in the third quarter.
The city state now forecasts its economy will contact between 2% and 5% this year, downgrading its earlier forecast for a contraction of between 2% and an expansion of 1%.
"Data releases in the past two weeks for retail sales and unemployment in the U.S., industrial production in Europe, and exports by Asian economies suggest that external demand conditions have weakened to a greater extend than earlier estimated," the ministry said in a statement Wednesday.
Economists said Singapore was likely to be among the early rebounders from recession because of its relatively small size and flexibility that brings in adapting to changes in the global economy. End of Story [blank (1-22 13:08, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]11楼

(引用 炎鑫:也有说30万的。造船业还是稳定的。报纸上面的是个别现象。都是估计。一个月前和一个月后的估计就会差很多。 几间大船厂都有政府参股，好...)有朋友是Kepple的，我不是。一个单就够他们吃一年了。去年的花红也是很可观的。可惜我不是Kepple的人[henan (1-22 16:14, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]12楼

美国人在让新加坡人和日本人帮他买单。这次给台湾逃过去了。阿扁最后还是做了件好事，小马哥运气不错。

新加坡公民，下个月都会得到政府的救济钱，不知道你们收到多少。我的房东收到3000。

当经济不好的时候首先遭殃的就是外国工人。目前政府已经彻底关闭外来工人的渠道。接下来就是work permit和S pass的续签。相信有一大批人要卷铺盖。

当本国人都吃不到饭的时候，还会管PR死活？移民潮暂时停止，650万这个目标还要慢慢缓一缓。度过这个危机后还会回来的。新加坡政府钱多得很。[炎鑫 (2-2 10:54, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]13楼

(引用 炎鑫:美国人在让新加坡人和日本人帮他买单。这次给台湾逃过去了。阿扁最后还是做了件好事，小马哥运气不错。 新加坡公民，下个月都会得到政府...)炎鑫兄又出山了啊！快给结结局
最近又去看房没有[TW (2-2 16:00, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]14楼

(引用 炎鑫:美国人在让新加坡人和日本人帮他买单。这次给台湾逃过去了。阿扁最后还是做了件好事，小马哥运气不错。 新加坡公民，下个月都会得到政府...)你的房东有3k? 是不是老而穷？[大热卖 (2-3 8:55, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]15楼

(引用 大热卖:你的房东有3k? 是不是老而穷？)退休了。老。住3房租屋，不算富裕吧。不过儿女都挺好。[炎鑫 (2-3 14:48, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]16楼

(引用 炎鑫:美国人在让新加坡人和日本人帮他买单。这次给台湾逃过去了。阿扁最后还是做了件好事，小马哥运气不错。 新加坡公民，下个月都会得到政府...)这些rebate PR都没分是马？不过tax rebate pr 是有的 ：）

公民的话，怎样才知道能得到多少钱呢？ 包括property tax rebate这些[picaqiu (2-4 15:08, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]17楼