DJ MARKET TALK: Heineken's APB Bid Unlikely To Succeed -CIMB

0322 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Fraser & Neave's (F99.SG) new and incumbent shareholders are unlikely to relinquish Asia Pacific Breweries (A46.SG), with a high chance Heineken's (HEIA.AE) S$50/share APB bid won't succeed, CIMB says. "F&N itself should be unwilling to give up its F&B exposure while major shareholder Kirin (2503.TO) is likely to veto any sale to Heineken." New substantial F&N shareholder Thai Beverage (Y92.SG) would lose out from lower F&N valuations after a deal, it notes. Based on ThaiBev's F&N-stake offer price, it estimates ThaiBev is willing to pay S$60-S$65/share for APB. "Another possible reason for Heineken's move was to force ThaiBev to come up with a better offer for APB. Heineken will pre-empt having to work with a new partner (to run APB) if their general offer is not accepted and ThaiBev fails to come up with a better offer." But it adds, the bid is positive overall for F&N shareholders as the stock is likely to climb. At S$50/APB share, it estimates F&N's sum-of-the-parts valuation at about S$10/share. (leslie.shaffer@dowjones.com)