读了之后想到以下
1. 直接估值
详细计算例子（http://lithiumamericas.com/companies/cauchari-olaroz/）：
| Stage 1 DFS | |
|---|---|
| Lithium Carbonate Price | $12,000/t Li2CO3 |
| Average Annual Production | 25,000 tpa Li2CO3 |
| Expected Project Life | 40 years |
| Project capital costs | $425 million |
| Operating costs | $2,495/t Li2CO3 |
| Average annual EBITDA | $233 million |
| Pre-tax NPV 10% discount | $1,266 million |
| After-tax NPV 10% discount | $803 million |
| Pre-tax IRR | 34.0% |
| After-tax IRR | 28.4% |
| Payback period | 3 years, 5 months |
2. 间接估值
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4034589-top-12-lithium-miners-create-lithium-etf?page=2
Near term producer (~2018/2019) 116m Near term producer (~2019) 53mPilbara Minerals AU$0.535 Near term producer (~late 2017) 507m Nemaska Lithium CA$1.28 315m Lithium Americas CA$0.79 Near term producer (~2019) 179m Altura Mining AU$0.135 Near term producer (~late 2017) 125m Lithium X CA$2.30 Near term producer (~2019)
Critical Elements CA$0.485
a. 每个公司的网页都有resource与／或reserve（https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2f/McKelveyDiagram.jpg/1920px-McKelveyDiagram.jpg）的信息（有的公司不止一个矿）：
http://lithiumamericas.com/companies/cauchari-olaroz/
Lithium Mineral Resource Summary (effective date July 11, 2012)
| Cut-off 354 mg/l | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Description | Brine (m3) | Average Lithium Concentration (mgéL) | Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (tonnes) | Lithium |
| Measured Resources2,3,4,5,6 | 9.14 x 108 | 630 | 3,039,000 | 576,000 |
| Indicated Resources2,3,4,5,6 | 2.89 x 109 | 570 | 8,713,000 | 1,650,000 |
b. 路透社有market cap：
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview/LAC.TO
c. 可以粗略计算market cap/resource, market cap/reserve ratio作为市场对同类公司估值参考，自己再加premium／discount。
PS. 未来是不确定的。以上纯粹理论讨论。实际上是翟大说买我就买翟大说卖我就卖，愿赌服输，很简单。
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