The way you talk shows you are a speculator, but not an investor on TESLA stock
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作者:pymess (等级:2 - 初出茅庐,发帖:508) 发表:2023-01-04 11:59:36  楼主  关注此帖
左侧?还是右侧?开市前多想几个点: 1. 特斯拉的性质:如果觉得它是个金融工具,可以买;如果按照企业来看,不能买。 2. 左侧还是右侧:左侧逆向,右侧顺势,之前的做法是左侧,感觉已经快到底,但目前还没有摸到底。 现在盘前111,昨天已经买了,今天操作的意义不大,要不要换一种思路?做右侧? 买不买还没有决定,卖肯定已经决定了,超过成本线,有利就走,后续风雨飘摇,还会有机会。
The way you talk shows you are a speculator, but not an investor on TESLA stock
And being a speculator(a neutral word) is totally fine. However, I think it's best to get a few things clear first before one takes a short term (intraday or position trade for a few days) bet on a very wild stock:

1) Left side(downtrend) or right side(uptrend)?
While it really depends! For the same stock, it could be uptrend on 1 min chart, downtrend on 15 min chart, uptrend on hourly chart, up trend again on daily chart, and downtrend on weekly chart... It is your trading time frame that really decides whether the stock is currently uptrend or downtrend. Therefore, decide your trading time frame first, then go to your respective chart and see how the stock is trending in that time frame.

2) entry and exit signal
everyone has his own defined entry and exit signal for stock market. Maybe it is an important support and resistance price level in a particular time frame; Or it could be some fancy charting signals; Or it could be some news or rumors; Or it could be big house analysts report updates; Or it may be some important corporation results and announcements trigger. And I believe all these trading signals are making sense, as long as it is proven in the long run with some convincing winning statistics. But try not to speculate base on "gut feelings" or "guessing", it is unstainable since it involves too much emotion. Lastly, try to make the trading signal easy to follow and understand.

3) money management
For me, money management is and should be a simple formula:
winning rate * gains per trade - losing rate * loss per trade > 0
(winning rate + losing rate = 100%
also gain per trade and loss per trade must deduct all trading fees)

Looks easy, but how to achieve it? the part 2 mentioned above comes into play, meaning after defining your trading system, you should be able to find how much money you will win per trade, and how much you can lose per trade, both in dollar term, and then you should do at least 100 or 200 trades to find your winning rate. It should be a sustained winning system if the equation greater than 0, and vice versa. And from experience, the winning rate is not that important, it is the combination of the three (winning rate and gains per trade and loss per trade) that really matters. Therefore, defining your profit target and stop loss level become extremely important.

4) get familiar with the stocks you play
generally speaking, the more volatile the stock, the better it is for speculating or short term trading, since at least it moves and give one opportunity to make(lose) money. Thus one should know the behavior of the particular stock that you trade, eg: the important price level of that stock, the daily trading range, daily volume, when XD, when results will be released, how is the stock option behaving, and market sentiment of the day.

Here we are not talking about investment. I am only sharing the short term trading experience that I have had before. If you ask me, I can't remember much about my winning trades. But I will never forget all the big losing trade that I have ever incurred, and below are the only two reasons why speculators LOSE BIG on certain trades:
1 didn't cut initial small loss (if you really have this stop loss level)
2 keep averaging down (if you long) or keep averaging up (if you short) until blow the account
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作者:pymess (等级:2 - 初出茅庐,发帖:508) 发表:2023-01-05 10:53:23  2楼
小鹏现在涨幅11.25%,理想只有5.29%一念之差,差的挺多的。
good timing and nice gain. Have you sold?
If NO, then what is the exit plan? Any profit target and stop loss in mind?

1) If the EV sector continues its momentum tonight, is the previous high $24 - $24.40 (which is also near 200 MA line) a good area to sell? or do you want to sell half first then see how is the trading reaction at that price zone? or maybe you are quite confident that the price will penetrate $24.40 without any barrier, are you going to double up your bet and looking for a even huge win?

2) What if price action tonight is not in your favor, is there any price level in your mind that will stop you out, no matter what? could the stop loss price be the previous low $18? or your entry day low price $20.55? or trailing your exit price to today's low $21.44 ? or any psychological whole number like $20, $22? or just put the stop loss at the breakeven price? Frankly speaking, this stop loss price should be defined earlier at the moment of purchasing your stock

3) And a lot of times, the price will neither hit your profit target, nor touch your stop loss so soon (more than 50% of the time stocks are just going sideway), what is the plan then? Of course you can wait for the price to be hit, but it will take up your money and cost you other good trading opportunity, especially if you are doing the very short term day trading, , therefore, a "time stop out" is also possible (say must sell at the third day closing price after entry).

However, if you already sold your position last night, I congratulate you on the good profit. I mean you can also share why you buy and sell that particular stock at that particular price and time, on that particular day, even if you say it is because of your "six sense", so be it. The importance is we have to try to make the trigger for winning trades more reasonable and repeatable, so that we can have consistent profitability and more confidence on the system.
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作者:pymess (等级:2 - 初出茅庐,发帖:508) 发表:2023-01-06 10:21:01  3楼
非常有逻辑的讨论点很愿意和专业人士认真探讨投资,说一下决策逻辑: 像选秀一样,投资不能把输赢压在一支股票,要靠组合。 组合成员表现不一,只有选心里喜欢的才能承受输赢。 昨晚新能源汽车的个体表现,小鹏第一,NIO第二,理想第三。之前觉得小鹏是炒作大王,一直没买过理想。看到公布的销量表现好,当天港股表现出色,晚上就想尝试一下美股行不行,以21.7买进。事实证明,港股行不代表美股行。既然是个错选,在有利润的时候卖掉,以免后续心理不舒服。昨晚睡前挂23卖单,早上醒来发现交易成功了。如果后续理想继续涨,和我没关系。 NIO成本足够低,目前账面有利润,准备长持,体验行业的起伏,万一后续整个行业不行了,我认栽。 特斯拉目前账面亏损,不想止损,拿着。我一直把它当作金融工具,在没有新的、好的工具出现之前,它会一直震荡,账面扭亏为盈再走。它背后牵扯了太多利益方,一时半会儿不能死,以后还有机会。 组合里面还有另外两个成分股,KWEB中概互联网之前在有利润的情况下卖出,这一波没进,空仓错过了。 TQQQ在有利润的时候没走,现在账面是亏损11.49%,处理方式和特斯拉一样,后续转盈就卖。 体验了这两个月的市场波动,正在考虑是不是同时操作TQQQ和SQQQ。 之前获利卖掉SQQQ (more...)
说的挺好的,把你当时的交易心理描述的很详细。
我想再强调一下啊,我之前讨论的一些经验和心得仅限于投机,是短线和极短线的行为,和投资沾不上边。凡是认真参与过市场的人,无论你是做股票,期货,外汇,债券,还是金融衍生品,心里或多或少都清楚即使单单只做中长线投资,或者单单只做短线投机,想要从市场中长期稳定的获利都是不容易的,更别说要把两种风格一起搞好。但是一旦真的一种风格你得法了,也会让你回报巨大。

因为我看你真的是有认真在钻研市场,大家工作赚来的辛苦钱都不容易,投机还是有风险的,所以我想就短线投机再多啰嗦两句啊, 兄台勿见怪:

1)在投机中,胜率不是最重要的。
我记得我有了一些基本的市场知识后就去开了个外汇账户,外汇的交易费用相对很小,而且24小时不停的波动,所以我研究了一段时间后觉得scapling是最有效的。我大概连续交易了8个小时,做了26笔交易,全部盈利,但是看看我的每笔盈利ticks(1 tick = 10 US dollar)你会发笑, 2 ticks, 4 ticks, 5 ticks, 7 ticks (平均5个ticks/trade), 最多的一笔赚了11个ticks. 但是26盈利加起来其实也有1000多美金(100多个ticks), 对于一个刚毕业的人来说不到半天赚的外快那是不小的数目,我憧憬着这样下去一个月能赚多少,一年下来能赚多少,翻了下电脑上的日历指着一个未来的日子说这天新加坡首富应该是我了。然后下一个8个小时你应该猜到了结果,我只做了三个交易,分别赔了60ticks, 90ticks, 150 ticks(平均100个ticks/trade).....为什么只有三个交易呢,因为在一连串的小赢后我觉得我每次方向都是对的,根本不会错,所以市场走势相反我却没止损,只能等着,希望它能回来。其实后来回想,前面的26笔交易中有很多次我开始也是错的,只是价格又幸运地回到了我的入场价, 人的心态就是好不容易赔钱的买卖又不赔了,自然到了我的买价有了一点小利就卖掉了。这也是我之前每笔盈利很小的原因之一。所以你看啊,我全部的29笔交易产生了一个什么样的risk reward formula, 它是90%*50 - 10%*1000 = -55 < 0 自然是大大的亏损。

同样的,即使胜率只有30% (或25%, 或20%), 但是risk: reward = 4:1 (或5:1, 或6:1,越高越好,但也更难), 显然是可以赚钱的。 而这样的参数,我觉得无论对长线,中线,短线,都才是最优解。而这种理念不太容易被接受的原因之一就是我们人一旦连续做了3,4次失败的交易,很可能就没有信心再出手那5次,对于一个好的交易系统,其实那第5次才是你最终会翻盘的一次出手。

2)止损(止盈)对于投机的重要。
上面的例子已经证明止损有多么重要,你说的止损完价格马上就反弹甚至回到你的入场价以上,这是正常的。甚至我可以说10次至少有7,8次止完损后市场会立刻打脸。但没有了止损,你的risk(loss)就是全部本金的风险。当然如果没有杠杆的话你可以说错了我就buy and hold呗,反正不卖的话我就总有机会把价格等回来。但这已经超过了投机的范畴,如果真的要是长线投资,可能应该去看公司主营业务增长啊,EPS增长,公司的管理层水平啊,有没有新的产品或研发,竞争对手的比较和行业前景等等,而股价恰恰应该是最最最后面的一个投资者会关心的东西,股票蜡烛图都不需要看,对不?可是对投机而言,止损其实就是在保护你的本金,

这里我认为有一个很重要的投机概念,即多次入市。假设你的股票在20块钱整数位有很强的阻力,但通过分析,你认为一旦破了20, 下个一目标大概率是25。所以当你看到20块被突破了,马上以20.05的价格买进,目标25, 止损19。 很不幸,这次是假突破,股价跌到18.9,你错了并且被止损了。但是很快股价又回到了20块,这时候该如何决定,如果是我的话我会再进。因为这样的走势恰恰验证了我之前的判断,因为股价只回调了1块钱就又回到了重要阻力位,强势的信号。但这时候很最高价不再是20,而是20.2。 现在再突破的话需要你买20.25。刚刚买20.05都已经赔了,现在让我们买更高,很多人可能已经下不去手了,但是如果你的交易规则告诉你应该进,那就不要犹豫再进,目标价25,止损18.85。 sorry, 很不幸,又是很强的卖压,股价跌到了18.8,再次被止损。然后一样的事情再次发生,股价又回到了20。大多数人这时可能已经把这支股票从屏幕上删除了,但是对某些交易者来说,这样的走势正是股票最强势的表现。你的价格会从20块钱一路买到20.3,甚至20.5,然后牢牢的遵守自己18.8 的 止损底线,最后如愿一部分卖到了25,一部分卖了26,一部分卖了28。

上面是我模拟了一个多次入市的场景,目的其实是说每一笔交易都是独立的,只要它符合你交易规则就可以了,规则如果让你进就进,规则让你止损就止损,规则让你止盈那就套利呗。那比如说上一段落中的那支股票经过了一年的疯涨,又从30块钱涨到了50,并且正在一个50快钱的平台整理,经过分析你认为会突破上看60. 对于一个优秀的投机者,之前买20块钱卖26块钱的交易经历是不应该成为50块钱重新入场的任何障碍的。

我认为还是把投资和投机区分开是最好的,最好是两个账户,一个长,一个短,目的明确,做法明确,还可以比较优劣,从而让自己确定更适合哪种风格。











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