谢谢你对大家的风险提示。
实际上公司权证(company warrant)与银行发行的看涨权证 (Call warrant, options) 之间有很多相似与不同之处，值得好好研究，我曾经让 ChatGPT 作过比较
"They may look similar but are structurally different tools serving different roles. Treating them as the same can lead to mispricing risks, especially regarding valuation, risk exposure, and impact on existing shareholders."
本贴讨论的是 公司权证，另外我大概有十五年以上不碰看涨权证 (Call warrant, options)了，也不讨论 CW/PW了，那是严重烧手后得到的自律。
Let me just add one important note about probability in trading.
the higher the winning probability for a particular type of trade, the lower the potential return it can generate.
Conversely, the lower the winning probability, the higher the potential return — but with greater risk.
Traders don't focus on just one trade. It's the repetitive nature of trades — the consistency of winning probabilities combined with the profit/loss ratio — that determines long-term success.
If someone believes they've found a trade with a 90% win rate and 500% potential return, that's likely just a wish. If it's a one-off lucky trade, fine. But if they think it can work on a consistent basis, it's nothing more than a castle in the air.
Conversely, the lower the winning probability, the higher the potential return — but with greater risk.
Traders don't focus on just one trade. It's the repetitive nature of trades — the consistency of winning probabilities combined with the profit/loss ratio — that determines long-term success.
If someone believes they've found a trade with a 90% win rate and 500% potential return, that's likely just a wish. If it's a one-off lucky trade, fine. But if they think it can work on a consistent basis, it's nothing more than a castle in the air.
Huasing Association 1999 - 2013