(引用 空空如也:再出来讲一次，教训！与那些难忘的新手朋友们共勉之(3)说老实话，我自己这次操作也不顺利，主要是后期，在前面空仓3次后，看股价跌多又跳...)再出来讲一次，教训！与那些难忘的新手朋友们共勉之（4〕这里还要讲一点，如何看网上高手的帖。
我觉得新手看贴，如果只是想跟进某只好股，赚它一票，那处发点就指值得再考虑了。这么样你何不直接去读分析师报告？我做过统计，去年80只分析报告我一一检查，80％以上都超过了目标价。
我觉得听网上高手，第一要弄清楚他的基本操作风格，是技术派，还是基本面派？他有没有止损系统？ 特别是在目前这种股灾下他们个人是如何应对的，为什么他们这么做？结果如何？在不符合他们预期时他们是如何调整的？
这些才是从高手哪里学习的重点。
高手掐架，我们从中体会什么？应该想想他讲的再错，当中也可能包含了一点真理。而所谓真理，是有时间段的，这短时间的真理，很可能下一短时间就是谬论。我们就应该从看帖中悟出这种道理。
好了，就讲这些，我还是遵守自己诺言，不会轻易出来讲了。我也在反省自己。这短时间看看书是最能看得进，感悟也最深刻的。或许将来有机会和大家分享。
借此机会，公开感谢一下那些给我来信的朋友们。你们太好了！
[空空如也 (8-16 11:12, Long long ago)]
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(引用 mfe:LIQUIDITY是最近几天股市爆跌的一个主要原因,SUBPRIME危机引起的UNWINDING使得各大机构纷纷套现, 回笼资金, 用以应付急剧增加的现金需求....)of course liquidity is not the only thing,but looking at short term lending rates like LIBOR, and treasury yields, you can see how much people are eager for CASH and how much they want to put CASH in a safe heaven. These few days, investors's confidence is collapsing. They just wanna get out of the market at any price.[mfe (8-16 11:14, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]22楼
(引用 speculatist:what's more? please share...)是啊，也想学习学习，AXL开个新贴说一说八～～[我无语老 (8-16 11:14, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]23楼
(引用 mfe:of course liquidity is not the only thing,but looking at short term lending rates like LIBOR, and treasury yields, you can see h...)这么恐慌啊我今晚要多买些方便面。。。。。[我无语老 (8-16 11:16, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]24楼
(引用 speculatist:what's more? please share...)i m not saying "in fact" there is something morebut
evidences are pointing to that mkt is more concerned abt fundies now
1) refer to my post below on STX PO, replying someone. see how the base metal/us consumption/high capex names are being sold
2) wal mart news blew so hard
3) hard very big long only funds are selling down mkt in these two days
4) big cap leading the dive
things cld be worse if there indeed turn out to be something wrong[AXL (8-16 11:19, Long long ago)]
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(引用 mfe:of course liquidity is not the only thing,but looking at short term lending rates like LIBOR, and treasury yields, you can see h...)the rate hike is not demand led, but supply dry up[AXL (8-16 11:21, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]26楼
(引用 空空如也:再出来讲一次，教训！与那些难忘的新手朋友们共勉之（4〕这里还要讲一点，如何看网上高手的帖。 我觉得新手看贴，如果只是想跟进某只好�...)80只分析报告?你是说哪家？ocbc/dbs这类一天都出个4,5篇，一年总的分析报告大概5000以上啊。[劳动人民子弟 (8-16 11:23, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]27楼
(引用 speculatist:what's more? please share...)more通货膨胀之忧: cpi +0.1%, core +0.2%
烫手山芋无人接手之忧: previously risky-assets were under-priced, but now no buyers at all! Not even a price can be set. What you can do is just watching the spread shoot up.
房价之忧: 美房价再滑1.5%, SUB-PRIME 阴影更严重
油价上涨之忧: 美库存减少, 能源资源成本上涨之担心益盛
现在的问题是全球交易基本没人在看基本面了,都心乱了. SUB-PRIME 高度敏感,听到就恐慌, 而显然还会有其他相关的坏消息浮出水面..
下面就等失业率数字看怎样了...
[临江仙 (8-16 11:24, Long long ago)]
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(引用 AXL:the rate hike is not demand led, but supply dry up)supply dry up? 请赐教.[mfe (8-16 11:24, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]29楼
(引用 AXL:i m not saying "in fact" there is something morebut
evidences are pointing to that mkt is more concerned abt fundies now
1) re...)大资金为了安全出走了先大资金总是这样，那就是不大计较成本滴走了啊～ 还是担心市场恐慌啊。
希望AXL老弟继续跟进最新动向！关注了[我无语老 (8-16 11:25, Long long ago)]
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(引用 临江仙:more通货膨胀之忧: cpi +0.1%, core +0.2%
烫手山芋无人接手之忧: previously risky-assets were under-priced, but now no buyers at a...)第一条不算阿.Core inflation is in check. not big worry.关于risky assets under-pricing? what do you mean? I think they were overpricing, so not the world are dumping risky assets and fly to safer assets.
housing down another 1.5% can i have the full news ? thanks!
[speculatist (8-16 11:28, Long long ago)]
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(引用 临江仙:more通货膨胀之忧: cpi +0.1%, core +0.2% 烫手山芋无人接手之忧: previously risky-assets were under-priced, but now no buyers at a...)为何大资本如此脆弱？ 一个subprime全趴下了？[割吧，都焦了 (8-16 11:28, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]32楼
(引用 临江仙:more通货膨胀之忧: cpi +0.1%, core +0.2%
烫手山芋无人接手之忧: previously risky-assets were under-priced, but now no buyers at a...)通货膨胀: cpi +0.1%, core +0.2%已经是近八个月来最好的了. 老BEN的政策已经开始奏效.
烫手山芋无人接手之忧是重点, 问题就在这里. 全球几千上万亿美元的风险资产一夜之间突然没人信了, 几个月前, 只要有CASHFLOW的东西就可以用来抵押发行债卷, 有钱人欢欣鼓舞地把钱交给各类基金. 可现在都抢着要套现, 可那些基金手中的RISKY ASSETS都没人要, 怎么办呢? 卖股票吧. 再加上越来越多的银行也加入其中, 投资者的信心指数也就可想而知了. CASH IS THE KING NOW![mfe (8-16 11:36, Long long ago)]
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(引用 割吧，都焦了:为何大资本如此脆弱？ 一个subprime全趴下了？)subprime是underlying，真正杀手是derivatives whose underlying isbased on those subprime.
由于derivatives有高的leverage效果，所以就这么扩大的。由于国际化，资金流动自由，所以美国出问题，别的地方受影响。而相对资金比较封闭的地方受影响就少。[speculatist (8-16 11:36, Long long ago)]
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(引用 割吧，都焦了:为何大资本如此脆弱？ 一个subprime全趴下了？)个人理解哈，是不是因为它不能跟散户一样one click就完成交易大资金总要慢慢滴进，然后慢慢滴出。one click进出的话总是太明显，也做不到。
看到好趋势就买进些，看到不好就卖出些。即使买进也不会完全满仓，即使卖出也不会完全空仓。
同时回临江那个帖子一句，这是我个人理解哈：关于烫手山芋无人接手之忧。其实烫手山芋总是有人接手的。大资金总要立足于基本面的，一旦发现under-value就会买些。之所以一直跌，是因为买不如卖的量吧，就是恐慌。大资金会在非常under-value的时候从偷偷买到不那么偷偷买，就会有很明显的拉升。[我无语老 (8-16 11:37, Long long ago)]
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(引用 speculatist:what's more? please share...)在metal市场。镍从55000跌倒26000，如果long future德人，破产就在眼前。[speculatist (8-16 11:38, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]36楼
(引用 mfe:supply dry up? 请赐教.)因为如果没有剧增的现金需求, 现金供应为什么会不够呢?[mfe (8-16 11:38, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]37楼
(引用 speculatist:subprime是underlying，真正杀手是derivatives whose underlying isbased on those subprime.
由于derivatives有高的leverage效果，所�...)支持这个“而相对资金比较封闭的地方受影响就少”确实如此。
有好有坏啊，唉[我无语老 (8-16 11:39, Long long ago)]
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(引用 speculatist:第一条不算阿.Core inflation is in check. not big worry.关于risky assets under-pricing? what do you mean? I think they were overp...)恩,第一条不算, 抱歉看错了.For risky-assets, I am saying in the past, before the sub-prime crisis, risky-assets were so much under-priced to a large extend, and now this wave of credit crunch is all about risky-assets re-pricing. However, due to the sudden liquidity dry-up, investors are generally panic and the BUYER market of risky-assets simply disappeared. Without a buyer market's existence, there is no way to re-price the risky-assets, what would happen is ppl can only play in quality asset market, coupled with regulatory or risk-averse concern, quality assets are oversold at cheap price to cash-in. But without the re-pricing of the risky-assets, the sell-down in quality assets is far from an end.
Traders, Investment bankers are taking long leaves for the market to settle down. Simply because there is little business for credit play - leveraged buy-out, high-yield, all these hot topics in the past utilizing leverage and credit are deadly quite, IPOs and new debt issuance are postponed....
For Housing, here is the Existing single home prices that fell 1.5%, confirming that housing is still falling and is not improving. This is taken from one institute's summary, no further details yet.
[临江仙 (8-16 11:43, Long long ago)]
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(引用 mfe:因为如果没有剧增的现金需求, 现金供应为什么会不够呢?)because of fearbanks afraids of not able to get their money back[AXL (8-16 11:43, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]40楼