同一只个股我没有纯技术流。
选股的话本身是要找有明确发展方向的。 自己基本能看懂的。 蓝筹。 我到现在也搞不懂英伟达算蓝筹好事增长
假如按照传统蓝筹， 其实没有那么大的振幅。
我可能同时看涨看跌 。 但时间上有点也不是完全错开差别。 参照物不同。我比较在乎beta .portfolio level
有时候又反过来。
如果跌的可能性比长的可能性高。
我比较了解自己。能力非常有限。 所以一般八成以上的把握。但你或者别人不一定会认同我的判断。觉得比较主观。 因为风险包含的东西多，做减法的也多。 鸟大了什么林子也有，这样的情况也有。
所以我很喜欢我的职业和这个事情。欲罢不能。 看书看看别人怎么弄的。学一学。
(more...)
just now I wrote half, allow me to complete this post.
“每天争取盈利$1000, 或者20天盈利$20,000, 平均每天盈利$1000，或者一年盈利$25万，平均每天盈利$1000"
这三种1%的盈利模式，对于一个10万的账户来说一年后最终的结果是一模一样的。但是他们的做法确是有天壤之别，从持股时间，交易频次，止盈止损（或者干脆不需要止损），仓位控制，选股逻辑，都是完全不同的。
就让咱们抛开所有的选股，思辨，逻辑bla bla的环节。好，已经决定买了，直接单刀直入进入交易阶段。小土同学，你可以举两个例子，不需要你实际的买卖，just give me two examples in your mind, one is losing trade, one is winning trade. Let's say we long( assuming two stock have the same volatility or same beta as you have always mentioned)
holding period entry exit (loss for losing trade and profit for winning trade)
losing trade
winning trade
and assume you have 80% of winning rate right? so just throw me some numbers. Again i am not meaning to question you. you may just recall any two of your similar trades and fill in the banks above, assuming that you have proper excel records for all your trades?
for me i may fill in as:
10 seconds, 0.251 0.251 for losing trade (loss on trading fee).
10 seconds, 0.251 0.252 for winning trade.
or another time frame:
3 days, 25 24.5 for losing trade.
3 days, 25 27.2 for winning trade.
or another time frame:
15 days, 50 47 for losing trade
15 days, 50 63 for winning trade
i will not illustrate further for other longer time frame, and assuming there is no position sizing involved. This is just for discussion. So what is in your mind?
---
系统生成：由于楼层数受限，本帖实际回复的是 pymess 的帖子 “咋能呢。。100万的账户不可能用1%--1万的仓位每天再去搏1%-$100块钱的盈利。”
原地址：http://bbs.huasing.org/sForum/bbs.php?B=147_15127610
这三种1%的盈利模式，对于一个10万的账户来说一年后最终的结果是一模一样的。但是他们的做法确是有天壤之别，从持股时间，交易频次，止盈止损（或者干脆不需要止损），仓位控制，选股逻辑，都是完全不同的。
就让咱们抛开所有的选股，思辨，逻辑bla bla的环节。好，已经决定买了，直接单刀直入进入交易阶段。小土同学，你可以举两个例子，不需要你实际的买卖，just give me two examples in your mind, one is losing trade, one is winning trade. Let's say we long( assuming two stock have the same volatility or same beta as you have always mentioned)
holding period entry exit (loss for losing trade and profit for winning trade)
losing trade
winning trade
and assume you have 80% of winning rate right? so just throw me some numbers. Again i am not meaning to question you. you may just recall any two of your similar trades and fill in the banks above, assuming that you have proper excel records for all your trades?
for me i may fill in as:
10 seconds, 0.251 0.251 for losing trade (loss on trading fee).
10 seconds, 0.251 0.252 for winning trade.
or another time frame:
3 days, 25 24.5 for losing trade.
3 days, 25 27.2 for winning trade.
or another time frame:
15 days, 50 47 for losing trade
15 days, 50 63 for winning trade
i will not illustrate further for other longer time frame, and assuming there is no position sizing involved. This is just for discussion. So what is in your mind?
---
系统生成：由于楼层数受限，本帖实际回复的是 pymess 的帖子 “咋能呢。。100万的账户不可能用1%--1万的仓位每天再去搏1%-$100块钱的盈利。”
原地址：http://bbs.huasing.org/sForum/bbs.php?B=147_15127610
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