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yes, trading is tough. but I think if we make the trades setup too complicated, it will become even worse. I guess sometimes simplicity maybe the best.




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¾ÍÈÃÔÛÃÇÅ׿ªËùÓеÄÑ¡¹É£¬Ë¼±æ£¬Âß¼­bla blaµÄ»·½Ú¡£ºÃ£¬ÒѾ­¾ö¶¨ÂòÁË£¬Ö±½Óµ¥µ¶Ö±Èë½øÈë½»Ò׽׶Ρ£Ð¡ÍÁͬѧ£¬Äã¿ÉÒÔ¾ÙÁ½¸öÀý×Ó£¬²»ÐèÒªÄãʵ¼ÊµÄÂòÂô£¬just give me two examples in your mind, one is losing trade, one is winning trade. Let's say we long( assuming two stock have the same volatility or same beta as you have always mentioned)

holding period entry exit (loss for losing trade and profit for winning trade)
losing trade
winning trade

and assume you have 80% of winning rate right? so just throw me some numbers. Again i am not meaning to question you. you may just recall any two of your similar trades and fill in the banks above, assuming that you have proper excel records for all your trades?

for me i may fill in as:

10 seconds, 0.251 0.251 for losing trade (loss on trading fee).
10 seconds, 0.251 0.252 for winning trade.

or another time frame:
3 days, 25 24.5 for losing trade.
3 days, 25 27.2 for winning trade.

or another time frame:
15 days, 50 47 for losing trade
15 days, 50 63 for winning trade

i will not illustrate further for other longer time frame, and assuming there is no position sizing involved. This is just for discussion. So what is in your mind?

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