force sell down of quality assets.

it is something even big funds cannot control.

mutual fund has been flowing out emerging mkt big in past two month.

anyway, recent drop more abt speculators squaring positions rather than stainless destocking.

endless madness..shit

according to one senior banker, these instruments can easily leverage the sub-prime underlying 7-20 times!

I would be more interested to find out how the mechanism works! If any of you have the details, kindly share :)

就是讨论一种可能性，嘿嘿。


另外，几个月真的不长。只算中期，speculatist的理想活动时间段。


你觉得nickle能跌到多少？

they are all there, isn't it ?：）

I remember CDO is about multiple tranches of the pool of debt obligations being rated differently from high to low and the re-payment of interests/principle use waterfall method.

How does the leverage step in?

我觉得nickel差不多已经见底了

de-stocking不可能持续那么就

product mix change没有那么快实现

最近的weakness其实归根到底还是因为担心global economy slowdown. in that case, base metal will be hit most. (stock market now is another manifestation of that fear)

所以这就是兄弟对A股目前的担心哈？老弟有非常专业的市场数据，我等有福了，呵呵～


我感觉政府的相应对策在那时已经实施了。



看结果吧，5000为界。5000不但是关键的心理点位，主要是技术上的一条长期压力顶。所以说破5000是很吃力不讨好滴。所以一切看空也是要收到尊敬的。:)

A股的担心不是这个

A股纯粹是因为技术面的担心

say, 100m fund, 99m was safe, all the risk was in the last 1m tranche.I am not sure

我是本着不相信分析师报告的情绪，作后向测试的。方法很简单，我把早报/我报介绍的那种很简单报告集中起来（不是发给用户的较详细报告），80多只吧，时间是测试日之前6-12月的。对每份报告我都调出K线图来看，主要看下面几点：

1〕报告出炉几天前股价的变动。因为肯定有人先知道报告内容，我要看看本地人的偷跑如何，有多少是好消息面一出就借机会溜走的。
2〕多少天后达到预测目标价位？
3）又超过目标价多少，由此我大概了解分析师为保护自己留了多少余两
4〕之间有没有什么突发事件，是如何影响走势的
5〕达不到目标价的百分比？离目标价差多少？这是为我自己今后如果看分析师报告是，知道应留多少空间。
6〕哪间分析行的报告最准确。

以上这些工作花了不少时间，只作了一次。心里大概有数了，结论是，至少在牛市中期，听分析师报告基本没错。

5000有些近，算不算占你便宜呀～～


我的底线是5200，你若不愿意我可就算你赖皮了～ :P

assuming bank A, it give money to some poor credit people .

they use this mortgage to sell CDO, then they get money back in (proceeds of cdo sales)


they use the new proceeds to issue more mortgage, and use new mortage to issue cdo,

they have new proceeds,


so the whole process, you can see, nothing is really created , i.e. no real values there, but the money is more and more created, why?




root of all,

they securitized "CREDIT". credit , previously was some virtual invisible stuff, now become the real money, they are now same as the house, the factory, the gold, they can sell for money.



Use Credit to get money,

Leverage.

我只会看看MA, RSI, MACD和画画trendline...

这个版老老实实做功课的可能真的不多。


其实有些事情，甚至是market view / market FEEL，如果功课做足，把自己沉浸在里面，也是很能感觉得到的。



支持认认真真做功课的高手。