听说上一次组屋跌是因为oversupply, 而现在组屋都是BTO的, 情况大不一样了...

还有有一个原因是, 由于雷慢的事件, 使得很多长线投资的对票卷不太信任了, 转而投资实物性的私宅. 所以如果经济在第三季度有气色的话, 房价新的一波可能真的来了.

这么看来, 在新加坡, 房产先于经济复苏也不是不可能的事.

考虑到投资对象的转移，以及越来越明显的inflation压力，房价短期之内应该很难回头了。

但是明年开始一大批新condo project的上市，可能也不会把房价推到上一个离谱的地步。

IMHO

若干年前，3房式的组屋才卖1万新币，呵，这个年代，是不可能回去的了。

除非遇到突发的周边战争、更厉害的瘟疫、很严重的地震/海啸等，才会令楼价在短期內大跌吧。

那些speculator会不会赶在年底之前出货来避免那个税呢？如果是这样supply > demand会导致price的drop，也不是没可能。

经济复苏对于新加坡来说还早了点，连美国也只敢说green shoots.个人观点。

还没怎么涨就先抽钱, 个中缘由大家应该都明白吧...

HDB还发债券了吧...

房价的涨很多都是speculator炒起来的，现在限制speculation，对房价肯定是不利的。

除非有更多的刚性需求，这就需要新加坡经济好转，吸引更多外来机构很人才。现在看来还不是很乐观。

一家之言，呵呵。

http://www.zaobao.com/sp/sp090709_004.shtml

我感觉政府现在不希望组屋涨得太高太快，这样会有泡沫，现在经济基本面还没有好转，泡沫破了的话。。。

另外，居者有其屋是新加坡的基本政策，短期内不会变，政府也不会让屋价太高，人们负担不起。

但是廉价组屋的时代已经过去了，现在的屋价是首付几年积蓄全无，贷款cpf全没，虽然不像国内的房奴那么惨，但小夫妻买了组屋也要缓几年。。。

就算现在的组屋提升者买预购组屋，也要4，5年后拿到后才卖出现在住的房子。二手组屋供应几年内不会有大的变化。

Govt is proposing clarity to income tax law- anyone who sells more than 2
properties within 4 years may be taxed on gains from second sale onwards.
This will quell speculation and will take effect Jan 2010 if made into law.
Impact on developers- negative as it could spur a flurry of sales amongst
speculators before law kicks in. Here below is the article from ST.

July 8, 2009
When to tax property gains

A PROPOSED change to income tax laws will make clearer to property sellers
when they will be taxed on their profits.

Anyone who sells only one property in any four-year period will not be taxed
on his profit, according to a proposed amendment to the Income Tax Act.

But if he sells another property within four years of the first sale, the
profit from the second sale may be taxable.

If the proposal becomes law, it will provide certainty for owners who now
cannot be sure if the taxman will come calling after they sell.

Under existing rules, an individual does not pay tax on gains made from
selling a property unless the taxman decides that he is trader - someone who
buys and sells multiple properties within a short time span. And there is no
way for the seller to know in advance if he might be deemed a trader.

The new way of taxing property profits is one of many changes listed in a
draft Income Tax (Amendment) Bill 2009 put up for public feedback last month
by the Finance Ministry. If implemented, the change will take effect from
January.

A ministry spokesman told The Straits Times on Tuesday that the proposed
change aims to provide certainty of non-taxation to individuals who own
property.

Once it takes effect, the individual who sells a property for a profit can
be sure that his gains will not be taxed - provided he had not sold any
other property in the previous four years.

If he sold other properties within that period, the spokesman said, the
Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (Iras) will decide whether he should
be taxed, 'based on the facts and circumstances, no different from the
present tax treatment'.

The draft Bill can be read at the Finance Ministry website www.mof.gov.sg
and the public has up to next Tuesday to give feedback. The Bill is expected
to go before Parliament later in the year.

字面上说是原来炒楼的就可能被认做是trader，income tax就要对此收入收税，但是没有明确的条文说是怎样会被认做炒楼。现在是说四年内卖的第一套一定不收income tax，卖了超过一套就和原来的处理一样，也就是说要收income tax。就是不知道capital gain到底是算做卖的那年的收入还是平分到持有的几年。就算是都算做卖出的那年的收入，chargeable income 最高那档是320k以上，收20%，和中国有的城市有段时间收40%capital gain不能比啊，当然总比不收强。我当然希望不要象现在这样疯涨，六月一直在看二手私宅不停的涨啊

建屋局这种政策会导致灾难后果，反正他不亏。

有人就会等几年。本人不是看空，只是觉得政府不会让组屋大涨。

昨天从pioneer坐mrt到cityhall，发现好几个地铁站旁边都在修HDB，有个地铁站旁在修三四十层那种。
虽然HDB买的人多，我看新加坡有扩容潜力的地方还多着呢，到处都是三四十年的房子，楼层矮的也不少。每年都有那么多新组屋交付使用，只要人口不剧烈增长，一定会对房价有所缓和。

一家之言，甭拍我

说实话，住房是每个政府都应该好好解决的问题

你看到你的那些近地铁站的如果真的是hdb的话，绝大多数都是enbloc的那种，4-5年前都抽好签了，咱们想买都买不了。眼见为实，也不一定呀